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ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt — Eliteserien 2026

ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
S. Skytte 66'
M. Høibråten 47'
K. Junker 26'
P. Zinckernagel 16' (pen)
7/1/2020EliteserienEliteserien · Round 5Skagerak Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

ODD Ballklubb27%
×Draw23%
Bodo/Glimt50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Bodo/Glimt
1.82

Bodo/Glimt creates 40% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.30
Bodo/Glimt
2.15

allows per match

ODD Ballklubb
1.49
Bodo/Glimt
1.30

finishing

ODD Ballklubb+0.05on par
Bodo/Glimt+0.08on par

Total goals

Over: 60Under: 4060%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ODD Ballklubb ↓

Bodo/Glimt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

ODD Ballklubb or draw
50%
ODD Ballklubb or Bodo/Glimt
77%
Draw or Bodo/Glimt
73%

Winning margin

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
12%
Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
73%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
37%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
14%
Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
84%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
54%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
36%
Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ODD Ballklubb at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.49 · 23 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.30 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.15 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

ODD Ballklubb scores more
27%
level
23%
Bodo/Glimt scores more
50%

Bodo/Glimt at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
P. ZinckernagelBodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt · F
9.2

Match Events

15'
Espen Ruud
16'
P. ZinckernagelPenalty
22'
B. Mæland← B. Njie
26'
K. Junker↳ J. Hauge
47'
M. Høibråten
59'
S. Skytte← S. Fet
59'
V. Boniface← K. Junker
59'
I. Amundsen← M. Lode
64'
M. Bakenga← F. Jørgensen
64'
K. Jakobsen← O. Ugwuadu
66'
S. Skytte↳ P. Zinckernagel
68'
A. Foosnæs← F. Bjørkan
68'
S. Tounekti← J. Hauge
69'
Marius Hoibraten
88'
M. Larsen← M. Kaasa

Possession

ODD: 30Bodo/Glimt: 7030%ODD

Shots

ODD: 3Bodo/Glimt: 273ODD

Pass accuracy

ODD: 73Bodo/Glimt: 9045%ODD

Statistics

ODDBodo/Glimt
Overview
30%Possession70%
3Total Shots27
3Corners12
11Fouls11
Shots
3Total Shots27
1On Target10
2Off Target10
0Blocked7
1Inside Box17
2Outside Box10
Passing
30%Possession70%
267Total Passes605
194Accurate Passes543
73%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
3Offsides4

Match Recap: ODD Ballklubb vs Bodo/Glimt

Bodo/Glimt beat ODD Ballklubb 4-0 in Eliteserien on July 1, 2020.

Goals: P. Zinckernagel (16' pen), K. Junker (26'), M. Høibråten (47'), S. Skytte (66').

Bodo/Glimt controlled possession (70%) and registered 27 shots to 3.

The match was played at Skagerak Arena in Skien.