Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oborishte vs Levski Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
3/7/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Oborishte56%
×Draw25%
Levski Sofia II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
1.59
Levski Sofia II
0.81

Oborishte creates 96% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 69 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Levski Sofia II
0.78

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Levski Sofia II
1.49

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Levski Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
81%
Oborishte or Levski Sofia II
75%
Draw or Levski Sofia II
44%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
30%
Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
80%
Oborishte 2+ goals
47%
Oborishte 3+ goals
21%
Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
56%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
19%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
75%
Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Levski Sofia II away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.59

Levski Sofia II attack 0.78 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Oborishte scores more
56%
level
25%
Levski Sofia II scores more
19%

Oborishte at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Oborishte 1–0 Levski Sofia II

Oborishte beat Levski Sofia II 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 7, 2026.