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Levski Sofia II vs Oborishte — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oborishte
Oborishte
8/30/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 5Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Levski Sofia II48%
×Draw24%
Oborishte28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia II
1.71
Oborishte
1.26

Levski Sofia II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 132 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia II
1.86
Oborishte
1.39

allows per match

Levski Sofia II
1.13
Oborishte
1.56

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par
Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Oborishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw
72%
Levski Sofia II or Oborishte
76%
Draw or Oborishte
52%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
26%
Oborishte wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
82%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
51%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
24%
Oborishte 1+ goals
72%
Oborishte 2+ goals
36%
Oborishte 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
63%
Oborishte (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more
48%
level
24%
Oborishte scores more
28%

Levski Sofia II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Sofia II vs Oborishte

Levski Sofia II beat Oborishte 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte in Sofia.