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Oborishte vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Oborishte
Oborishte
FT
6 – 1
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
8/14/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 2Stadio Orcho voyvoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Oborishte79%
×Draw14%
Levski Chepintsi8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oborishte
2.74
Levski Chepintsi
0.73

Oborishte creates 275% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 36 away

creates per match

Oborishte
1.70
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Oborishte
0.85
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw
92%
Oborishte or Levski Chepintsi
86%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
21%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+
58%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals
93%
Oborishte 2+ goals
75%
Oborishte 3+ goals
51%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
52%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
17%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)
91%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.74

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Oborishte scores more
79%
level
14%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
8%

Oborishte at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oborishte vs Levski Chepintsi

Oborishte beat Levski Chepintsi 6-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Orcho voyvoda in Panagyurishte.