Levski Chepintsi 0–1 Oborishte: Result & Stats

Levski Chepintsi

FT

0 – 1

Oborishte

3/6/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 20Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi28%

×Draw25%

Oborishte48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski ChepintsiExpected goals in this matchOborishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.63

Levski Chepintsi

1.19

Oborishte

1.63

Oborishte creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 132 away

0.81

creates per match

1.39

1.86

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi

0.81

Oborishte

1.39

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi

1.86

Oborishte

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Oborishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw

52%

Levski Chepintsi or Oborishte

75%

Draw or Oborishte

72%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+

11%

Oborishte wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals

70%

Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals

33%

Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals

12%

Oborishte 1+ goals

80%

Oborishte 2+ goals

48%

Oborishte 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)

37%

Oborishte (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.19

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more

28%

level

25%

Oborishte scores more

48%

Oborishte at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff