Oborishte 1–0 CSKA Sofia II: Result & Stats

Oborishte

FT

1 – 0

CSKA Sofia II

8/20/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 3Stadion Saraya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Oborishte47%

×Draw25%

CSKA Sofia II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OborishteExpected goals in this matchCSKA Sofia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.15

Oborishte

1.57

CSKA Sofia II

1.15

Oborishte creates 37% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 34 away

1.70

creates per match

1.44

0.85

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Oborishte

1.70

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

allows per match

Oborishte

0.85

CSKA Sofia II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oborishte+0.00on par

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oborishte ↓

CSKA Sofia II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Oborishte or draw

72%

Oborishte or CSKA Sofia II

75%

Draw or CSKA Sofia II

53%

Winning margin

Oborishte wins by 2+

24%

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Oborishte 1+ goals

79%

Oborishte 2+ goals

46%

Oborishte 3+ goals

21%

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals

68%

CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals

32%

CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Oborishte (draw refunded)

63%

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oborishte at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.85 · 131 matches

CSKA Sofia II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oborishte attack 1.70 + CSKA Sofia II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

CSKA Sofia II attack 1.44 + Oborishte defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Oborishte scores more

47%

level

25%

CSKA Sofia II scores more

28%

Oborishte at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff