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CSKA Sofia II vs Oborishte — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA Sofia II
CSKA Sofia II
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Oborishte
Oborishte
11/7/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 14Stadion Bâlgarska Armija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CSKA Sofia II56%
×Draw23%
Oborishte22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Sofia II
1.85
Oborishte
1.06

CSKA Sofia II creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 132 away

creates per match

CSKA Sofia II
2.15
Oborishte
1.39

allows per match

CSKA Sofia II
0.74
Oborishte
1.56

finishing

CSKA Sofia II+0.00on par
Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Sofia II ↓

Oborishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CSKA Sofia II or draw
78%
CSKA Sofia II or Oborishte
77%
Draw or Oborishte
44%

Winning margin

CSKA Sofia II wins by 2+
32%
Oborishte wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CSKA Sofia II 1+ goals
84%
CSKA Sofia II 2+ goals
55%
CSKA Sofia II 3+ goals
28%
Oborishte 1+ goals
65%
Oborishte 2+ goals
29%
Oborishte 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CSKA Sofia II (draw refunded)
72%
Oborishte (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Sofia II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Sofia II attack 2.15 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.85

Oborishte attack 1.39 + CSKA Sofia II defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CSKA Sofia II scores more
56%
level
23%
Oborishte scores more
22%

CSKA Sofia II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CSKA Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA Sofia II 6–0 Oborishte

CSKA Sofia II beat Oborishte 6-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija in Sofia.