Obolon' Kyiv U19 1–1 Minaj U19: Result & Stats

Obolon' Kyiv U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Minaj U19

4/12/2024

U19 League · Round 24Stadion UTB Obolon'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Obolon' Kyiv U1943%

×Draw24%

Minaj U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon' Kyiv U19Expected goals in this matchMinaj U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.42

Obolon' Kyiv U19

1.63

Minaj U19

1.42

Obolon' Kyiv U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

1.84

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Obolon' Kyiv U19

1.38

Minaj U19

1.00

allows per match

Obolon' Kyiv U19

1.84

Minaj U19

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Obolon' Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Minaj U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon' Kyiv U19 ↓

Minaj U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Obolon' Kyiv U19 or draw

67%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 or Minaj U19

76%

Draw or Minaj U19

57%

Winning margin

Obolon' Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

22%

Minaj U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Obolon' Kyiv U19 1+ goals

80%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 2+ goals

48%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 3+ goals

22%

Minaj U19 1+ goals

76%

Minaj U19 2+ goals

41%

Minaj U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Obolon' Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Minaj U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon' Kyiv U19 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Minaj U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon' Kyiv U19 attack 1.38 + Minaj U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.63

Minaj U19 attack 1.00 + Obolon' Kyiv U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Obolon' Kyiv U19 scores more

43%

level

24%

Minaj U19 scores more

33%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Obolon' Kyiv U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff