Minaj U19 1–2 Obolon' Kyiv U19: Result & Stats

Minaj U19

FT

1 – 2

Obolon' Kyiv U19

9/30/2023

U19 League · Round 9Stadion Sokil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Minaj U1941%

×Draw27%

Obolon' Kyiv U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minaj U19Expected goals in this matchObolon' Kyiv U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.12

Minaj U19

1.30

Obolon' Kyiv U19

1.12

Minaj U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

1.07

creates per match

0.84

1.40

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Minaj U19

1.07

Obolon' Kyiv U19

0.84

allows per match

Minaj U19

1.40

Obolon' Kyiv U19

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minaj U19+0.00on par

Obolon' Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minaj U19 ↓

Obolon' Kyiv U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Minaj U19 or draw

68%

Minaj U19 or Obolon' Kyiv U19

73%

Draw or Obolon' Kyiv U19

59%

Winning margin

Minaj U19 wins by 2+

18%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Minaj U19 1+ goals

73%

Minaj U19 2+ goals

37%

Minaj U19 3+ goals

14%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 1+ goals

67%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 2+ goals

31%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Minaj U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minaj U19 at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Obolon' Kyiv U19 away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minaj U19 attack 1.07 + Obolon' Kyiv U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.30

Obolon' Kyiv U19 attack 0.84 + Minaj U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Minaj U19 scores more

41%

level

27%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 scores more

32%

Minaj U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Minaj U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff