Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy: Result & Stats

Obolon'-Brovar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

LNZ Cherkasy

A. Mykytyshyn 81'

5/24/2026

Premier League · Round 30Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar30%

×Draw26%

LNZ Cherkasy43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-BrovarExpected goals in this matchLNZ Cherkasy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.41

Obolon'-Brovar

1.13

LNZ Cherkasy

1.41

LNZ Cherkasy creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

1.41

creates per match

1.36

1.45

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.41

LNZ Cherkasy

1.36

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.45

LNZ Cherkasy

0.85

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar-0.50scores less

LNZ Cherkasy+0.35scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw

57%

Obolon'-Brovar or LNZ Cherkasy

74%

Draw or LNZ Cherkasy

70%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

12%

LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

68%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

31%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

11%

LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals

76%

LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals

41%

LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

41%

LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.85 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.41 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.13

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.36 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

30%

level

26%

LNZ Cherkasy scores more

43%

LNZ Cherkasy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Mark Assinor

21'

Dmytro Semenov

46'

M. Jashari← M. Assinor

61'

Taras Moroz

64'

A. Kulakovskyi← S. Sukhanov

66'

A. Mykytyshyn← A. Yakubu

66'

J. Bennette← D. Kuzyk

71'

D. Teslyuk← T. Lyakh

81'

A. Mykytyshyn↳ J. Bennette

84'

K. Bychek← I. Medynskyi

84'

R. Lyashchuk← M. Tretyakov

86'

Yevhenii Pastukh

Obolon'-Brovar4-4-2

LNZ4-3-3

17

▼

Kuzyk

90

▼

23

19

16

8

▼

14

29

34

11

12

1

5

50

44

28

75

▼

Tretyakov

4

Moroz

20

Volokhaty

13

▼

Medynskyi

55

▼

Sukhanov

90

▼

Lyakh

Manager: Oleksandr Antonenko

64'▲A. Kulakovskyi←▼S. Sukhanov

71'▲D. Teslyuk←▼T. Lyakh

84'▲K. Bychek←▼I. Medynskyi

84'▲R. Lyashchuk←▼M. Tretyakov

Obolon'-Brovar substitutes

31Marchenko21Bychek12Kozlov70Korkh8Kulakovskyi91Lyashchuk10Slobodyan99Teslyuk19Titov22Feshchenko17Chernenko7Chornyi

Manager: Vitaliy Ponomaryov

46'▲M. Jashari←▼M. Assinor

66'▲A. Mykytyshyn←▼A. Yakubu

66'▲J. Bennette←▼D. Kuzyk

LNZ Cherkasy substitutes

1Ledviy72Samoylenko7Mykytyshyn24Podolyak4Dajko33Putrya6Tankovskiy27Bennette18Abdul10Jashari22Tverdokhlib

Premier League: Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy

LNZ Cherkasy beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 in Premier League on May 24, 2026.

Goals: A. Mykytyshyn (81').

The match was played at Obolon Arena in Kyiv.

Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier League: Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 LNZ Cherkasy