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Obolon'-Brovar vs LNZ Cherkasy — Premier League 2026

Obolon'-Brovar
Obolon'-Brovar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LNZ Cherkasy
LNZ Cherkasy
5/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar34%
×Draw27%
LNZ Cherkasy39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obolon'-Brovar
1.17
LNZ Cherkasy
1.29

LNZ Cherkasy creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar
1.35
LNZ Cherkasy
1.21

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar
1.38
LNZ Cherkasy
0.98

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar-0.58scores less
LNZ Cherkasy+0.23scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

LNZ Cherkasy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw
61%
Obolon'-Brovar or LNZ Cherkasy
73%
Draw or LNZ Cherkasy
66%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+
14%
LNZ Cherkasy wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals
69%
Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals
33%
Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals
11%
LNZ Cherkasy 1+ goals
72%
LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
37%
LNZ Cherkasy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)
46%
LNZ Cherkasy (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

LNZ Cherkasy away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.98 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.35 + LNZ Cherkasy defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.21 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more
34%
level
27%
LNZ Cherkasy scores more
39%

LNZ Cherkasy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LNZ Cherkasy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
N. MuravskyiLNZ CherkasyLNZ Cherkasy · D
7.7

Match Events

46'
S. Sukhanov← O. Osman
60'
K. Bychek← D. Ustymenko
60'
V. Hrusha← V. Kurko
60'
D. Tesliuk← V. Bliznichenko
71'
G. Bessala← H. Pasich
71'
B. Makouana← D. Topalov
73'
Oleh Illin
78'
I. Medynskyi← R. Chernenko
79'
Mollo Bessala
80'
A. Avahimian← O. Thill
83'
Oleksandr Drambaev
88'
O. Kapliienko← O. Drambaiev

Possession

37%Obolon'-Brovar

Shots

11Obolon'-Brovar

Pass accuracy

47%Obolon'-Brovar

Statistics

Obolon'-BrovarLNZ
Overview
37%Possession63%
11Total Shots8
1.07Expected Goals (xG)0.14
2Corners3
11Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots8
3On Target1
5Off Target5
3Blocked2
5Inside Box1
6Outside Box7
Passing
37%Possession63%
298Total Passes536
230Accurate Passes467
77%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
5Offsides2

Premier League: Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 LNZ Cherkasy

Obolon'-Brovar and LNZ Cherkasy drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 10, 2025.

LNZ Cherkasy controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Obolon Arena in Kyiv.