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Obolon'-Brovar II vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
10/23/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 8Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II22%
×Draw26%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obolon'-Brovar II
0.89
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.53

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 72% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 21 away

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
0.73
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.38

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
1.68
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.05

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw
48%
Obolon'-Brovar II or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
74%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
78%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
7%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
59%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
22%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
6%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
78%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
45%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
30%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.38 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
22%
level
26%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
52%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Obolon'-Brovar II 0–3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Obolon'-Brovar II 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.