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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
5/7/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 21Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi60%
×Draw23%
Obolon'-Brovar II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.75
Obolon'-Brovar II
0.80

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 119% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.68
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.05

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.55
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.82

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par
Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw
83%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Obolon'-Brovar II
77%
Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II
40%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
34%
Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
83%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
52%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
25%
Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
55%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
19%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
78%
Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.68 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
60%
level
23%
Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
17%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Obolon'-Brovar II

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Obolon'-Brovar II 1-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on May 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos Dunaivtsi in Dunaivtsi.