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Obolon'-Brovar II vs Dinaz Vyshhorod — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
9/30/2019Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 12Stadion Yuvilejnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar II27%
×Draw26%
Dinaz Vyshhorod47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Obolon'-Brovar II
1.04
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.47

Dinaz Vyshhorod creates 41% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 47 away

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
0.73
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.26

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar II
1.68
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.36

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par
Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar II ↓

Dinaz Vyshhorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar II or draw
53%
Obolon'-Brovar II or Dinaz Vyshhorod
74%
Draw or Dinaz Vyshhorod
73%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
10%
Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
65%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
28%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
9%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
77%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
43%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
36%
Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 0.73 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.26 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
27%
level
26%
Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
47%

Dinaz Vyshhorod at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinaz Vyshhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Obolon'-Brovar II 1–2 Dinaz Vyshhorod

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat Obolon'-Brovar II 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Yuvilejnyj in Bucha.