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Dinaz Vyshhorod vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Dinaz Vyshhorod
Dinaz Vyshhorod
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
6/4/2021Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 25Stadion Dinaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dinaz Vyshhorod51%
×Draw24%
Obolon'-Brovar II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.75
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.18

Dinaz Vyshhorod creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 22 away

creates per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.67
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.05

allows per match

Dinaz Vyshhorod
1.30
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.82

finishing

Dinaz Vyshhorod+0.00on par
Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinaz Vyshhorod ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dinaz Vyshhorod or draw
74%
Dinaz Vyshhorod or Obolon'-Brovar II
76%
Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II
49%

Winning margin

Dinaz Vyshhorod wins by 2+
28%
Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinaz Vyshhorod 1+ goals
83%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 2+ goals
52%
Dinaz Vyshhorod 3+ goals
25%
Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
69%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
33%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinaz Vyshhorod (draw refunded)
66%
Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinaz Vyshhorod at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinaz Vyshhorod attack 1.67 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Dinaz Vyshhorod defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dinaz Vyshhorod scores more
51%
level
24%
Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
26%

Dinaz Vyshhorod at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dinaz Vyshhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Dinaz Vyshhorod 3–0 Obolon'-Brovar II

Dinaz Vyshhorod beat Obolon'-Brovar II 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinaz in Demidov.