Oberperfuss 2–2 Kirchbichl: Result & Stats

Oberperfuss

FT

2 – 2

Kirchbichl

10/22/2022

Landesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 14Oberperfuss Sportplatz Fußball Platz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Oberperfuss46%

×Draw21%

Kirchbichl34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OberperfussExpected goals in this matchKirchbichl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.81

Oberperfuss

2.13

Kirchbichl

1.81

Oberperfuss creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 44 away

2.07

creates per match

1.77

1.86

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Oberperfuss

2.07

Kirchbichl

1.77

allows per match

Oberperfuss

1.86

Kirchbichl

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oberperfuss+0.00on par

Kirchbichl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberperfuss ↓

Kirchbichl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Oberperfuss or draw

66%

Oberperfuss or Kirchbichl

79%

Draw or Kirchbichl

54%

Winning margin

Oberperfuss wins by 2+

26%

Kirchbichl wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Oberperfuss 1+ goals

88%

Oberperfuss 2+ goals

63%

Oberperfuss 3+ goals

35%

Kirchbichl 1+ goals

84%

Kirchbichl 2+ goals

54%

Kirchbichl 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Oberperfuss (draw refunded)

58%

Kirchbichl (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberperfuss at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.86 · 28 matches

Kirchbichl away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberperfuss attack 2.07 + Kirchbichl defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kirchbichl attack 1.77 + Oberperfuss defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Oberperfuss scores more

46%

level

21%

Kirchbichl scores more

34%

Oberperfuss at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oberperfuss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff