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Kirchbichl vs Oberperfuss — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
FT
1 – 2
Oberperfuss
Oberperfuss
5/23/2023Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 26SVK-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Kirchbichl47%
×Draw21%
Oberperfuss33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kirchbichl
2.19
Oberperfuss
1.81

Kirchbichl creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kirchbichl
1.73
Oberperfuss
1.79

allows per match

Kirchbichl
1.84
Oberperfuss
2.64

finishing

Kirchbichl+0.00on par
Oberperfuss+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchbichl ↓

Oberperfuss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kirchbichl or draw
67%
Kirchbichl or Oberperfuss
79%
Draw or Oberperfuss
53%

Winning margin

Kirchbichl wins by 2+
27%
Oberperfuss wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kirchbichl 1+ goals
89%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
64%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
37%
Oberperfuss 1+ goals
84%
Oberperfuss 2+ goals
54%
Oberperfuss 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
59%
Oberperfuss (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchbichl at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Oberperfuss away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchbichl attack 1.73 + Oberperfuss defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.19

Oberperfuss attack 1.79 + Kirchbichl defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kirchbichl scores more
47%
level
21%
Oberperfuss scores more
33%

Kirchbichl at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kirchbichl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: Kirchbichl 1–2 Oberperfuss

Oberperfuss beat Kirchbichl 2-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on May 23, 2023.

The match was played at SVK-Arena in Kirchbichl.