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Oberena vs Burladés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Oberena
Oberena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burladés
Burladés
10/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 8Estadio Oberena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oberena44%
×Draw27%
Burladés29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberena
1.34
Burladés
1.04

Oberena creates 29% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 90 away

creates per match

Oberena
1.31
Burladés
0.94

allows per match

Oberena
1.14
Burladés
1.37

finishing

Oberena+0.00on par
Burladés+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberena ↓

Burladés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oberena or draw
71%
Oberena or Burladés
73%
Draw or Burladés
56%

Winning margin

Oberena wins by 2+
20%
Burladés wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oberena 1+ goals
74%
Oberena 2+ goals
39%
Oberena 3+ goals
15%
Burladés 1+ goals
65%
Burladés 2+ goals
28%
Burladés 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oberena (draw refunded)
60%
Burladés (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Burladés away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberena attack 1.31 + Burladés defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Burladés attack 0.94 + Oberena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oberena scores more
44%
level
27%
Burladés scores more
29%

Oberena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oberena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberena vs Burladés

Oberena beat Burladés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Oberena in Pamplona.