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Burladés vs Oberena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Burladés
Burladés
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oberena
Oberena
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 25Ripagaina Hierba Artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Burladés47%
×Draw24%
Oberena29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burladés
1.71
Oberena
1.31

Burladés creates 31% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 49 away

creates per match

Burladés
1.34
Oberena
1.08

allows per match

Burladés
1.54
Oberena
2.08

finishing

Burladés+0.00on par
Oberena+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burladés ↓

Oberena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Burladés or draw
71%
Burladés or Oberena
76%
Draw or Oberena
53%

Winning margin

Burladés wins by 2+
25%
Oberena wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Burladés 1+ goals
82%
Burladés 2+ goals
51%
Burladés 3+ goals
24%
Oberena 1+ goals
73%
Oberena 2+ goals
38%
Oberena 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Burladés (draw refunded)
61%
Oberena (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burladés at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.54 · 91 matches

Oberena away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burladés attack 1.34 + Oberena defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oberena attack 1.08 + Burladés defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Burladés scores more
47%
level
24%
Oberena scores more
29%

Burladés at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Burladés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burladés vs Oberena

Oberena beat Burladés 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Ripagaina Hierba Artificial in Burlada.