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Oberena vs Beti Onak — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Oberena
Oberena
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Beti Onak
Beti Onak
3/9/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 24Estadio Oberena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oberena43%
×Draw26%
Beti Onak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberena
1.41
Beti Onak
1.13

Oberena creates 25% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 109 away

creates per match

Oberena
1.31
Beti Onak
1.13

allows per match

Oberena
1.14
Beti Onak
1.51

finishing

Oberena+0.00on par
Beti Onak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberena ↓

Beti Onak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oberena or draw
70%
Oberena or Beti Onak
74%
Draw or Beti Onak
57%

Winning margin

Oberena wins by 2+
21%
Beti Onak wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Oberena 1+ goals
76%
Oberena 2+ goals
41%
Oberena 3+ goals
17%
Beti Onak 1+ goals
68%
Beti Onak 2+ goals
31%
Beti Onak 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Oberena (draw refunded)
59%
Beti Onak (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Beti Onak away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberena attack 1.31 + Beti Onak defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.41

Beti Onak attack 1.13 + Oberena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Oberena scores more
43%
level
26%
Beti Onak scores more
30%

Oberena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oberena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberena vs Beti Onak

Beti Onak beat Oberena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Oberena in Pamplona.