Beti Onak 1–1 Oberena: Result & Stats

Beti Onak

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Oberena

D. Gaston 48'

A. Mata 57'

11/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 10Estadio Lorenzo Goikoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Beti Onak52%

×Draw23%

Oberena24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beti OnakExpected goals in this matchOberena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.15

Beti Onak

1.79

Oberena

1.15

Beti Onak creates 56% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

1.50

creates per match

1.08

1.22

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Beti Onak

1.50

Oberena

1.08

allows per match

Beti Onak

1.22

Oberena

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beti Onak+0.00on par

Oberena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Onak ↓

Oberena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beti Onak or draw

76%

Beti Onak or Oberena

77%

Draw or Oberena

48%

Winning margin

Beti Onak wins by 2+

29%

Oberena wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Beti Onak 1+ goals

83%

Beti Onak 2+ goals

53%

Beti Onak 3+ goals

26%

Oberena 1+ goals

68%

Oberena 2+ goals

32%

Oberena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beti Onak (draw refunded)

68%

Oberena (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Onak at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 110 matches

Oberena away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Onak attack 1.50 + Oberena defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Oberena attack 1.08 + Beti Onak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Beti Onak scores more

52%

level

23%

Oberena scores more

24%

Beti Onak at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beti Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

D. Gaston

57'

A. Mata

Beti

Oberena

Manager: Arizkuren

Manager: Haitz Amunarriz