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Oberena vs Beti Kozkor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Oberena
Oberena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
9/30/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 4Estadio Oberena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Oberena45%
×Draw26%
Beti Kozkor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberena
1.43
Beti Kozkor
1.07

Oberena creates 34% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 93 away

creates per match

Oberena
1.31
Beti Kozkor
1.00

allows per match

Oberena
1.14
Beti Kozkor
1.55

finishing

Oberena+0.00on par
Beti Kozkor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberena ↓

Beti Kozkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Oberena or draw
72%
Oberena or Beti Kozkor
74%
Draw or Beti Kozkor
55%

Winning margin

Oberena wins by 2+
22%
Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oberena 1+ goals
76%
Oberena 2+ goals
42%
Oberena 3+ goals
17%
Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
66%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
29%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Oberena (draw refunded)
62%
Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Beti Kozkor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberena attack 1.31 + Beti Kozkor defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Beti Kozkor attack 1.00 + Oberena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oberena scores more
45%
level
26%
Beti Kozkor scores more
28%

Oberena at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oberena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Oberena 0–0 Beti Kozkor

Oberena and Beti Kozkor drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Oberena in Pamplona.