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Beti Kozkor vs Oberena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Beti Kozkor
Beti Kozkor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oberena
Oberena
2/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 21Complejo Deportivo Plazaola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Beti Kozkor54%
×Draw24%
Oberena22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beti Kozkor
1.72
Oberena
1.00

Beti Kozkor creates 72% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

Beti Kozkor
1.35
Oberena
1.08

allows per match

Beti Kozkor
0.92
Oberena
2.08

finishing

Beti Kozkor+0.00on par
Oberena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beti Kozkor ↓

Oberena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beti Kozkor or draw
78%
Beti Kozkor or Oberena
76%
Draw or Oberena
46%

Winning margin

Beti Kozkor wins by 2+
30%
Oberena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Beti Kozkor 1+ goals
82%
Beti Kozkor 2+ goals
51%
Beti Kozkor 3+ goals
25%
Oberena 1+ goals
63%
Oberena 2+ goals
26%
Oberena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Beti Kozkor (draw refunded)
71%
Oberena (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beti Kozkor at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.92 · 92 matches

Oberena away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beti Kozkor attack 1.35 + Oberena defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.72

Oberena attack 1.08 + Beti Kozkor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Beti Kozkor scores more
54%
level
24%
Oberena scores more
22%

Beti Kozkor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Beti Kozkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beti Kozkor vs Oberena

Oberena beat Beti Kozkor 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Plazaola in Lekunberri.