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Oberachern vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Oberachern
Oberachern
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
11/18/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 18Waldsportplatz Oberachern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Oberachern39%
×Draw24%
Göppinger SV38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oberachern
1.60
Göppinger SV
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

creates per match

Oberachern
1.73
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

Oberachern
1.66
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

Oberachern+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oberachern ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Oberachern or draw
62%
Oberachern or Göppinger SV
76%
Draw or Göppinger SV
61%

Winning margin

Oberachern wins by 2+
19%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Oberachern 1+ goals
80%
Oberachern 2+ goals
47%
Oberachern 3+ goals
22%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
79%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
46%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Oberachern (draw refunded)
51%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oberachern at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oberachern attack 1.73 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.60

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + Oberachern defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Oberachern scores more
39%
level
24%
Göppinger SV scores more
38%

Oberachern at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oberachern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oberachern vs Göppinger SV

Göppinger SV beat Oberachern 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Waldsportplatz Oberachern in Achern.