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Göppinger SV vs Oberachern — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Oberachern
Oberachern
8/4/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Göppinger SV51%
×Draw22%
Oberachern27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
1.90
Oberachern
1.32

Göppinger SV creates 44% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 92 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
Oberachern
1.38

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
Oberachern
1.74

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
Oberachern+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

Oberachern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
73%
Göppinger SV or Oberachern
78%
Draw or Oberachern
49%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
29%
Oberachern wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
85%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
56%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
29%
Oberachern 1+ goals
73%
Oberachern 2+ goals
38%
Oberachern 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
66%
Oberachern (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Oberachern away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + Oberachern defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.90

Oberachern attack 1.38 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
51%
level
22%
Oberachern scores more
27%

Göppinger SV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göppinger SV vs Oberachern

Göppinger SV beat Oberachern 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.