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Académica do Soyo vs Benfica Luanda — Girabola 2021

Académica do Soyo
Académica do Soyo
FT
1 – 0
Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
3/31/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 5Estádio Mártires da Kanhara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Académica do Soyo38%
×Draw32%
Benfica Luanda30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Soyo
1.03
Benfica Luanda
0.87

Académica do Soyo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

creates per match

Académica do Soyo
1.13
Benfica Luanda
0.86

allows per match

Académica do Soyo
0.88
Benfica Luanda
0.93

finishing

Académica do Soyo+0.00on par
Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Soyo ↓

Benfica Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Académica do Soyo or draw
70%
Académica do Soyo or Benfica Luanda
68%
Draw or Benfica Luanda
62%

Winning margin

Académica do Soyo wins by 2+
15%
Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Académica do Soyo 1+ goals
64%
Académica do Soyo 2+ goals
28%
Académica do Soyo 3+ goals
9%
Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
58%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
22%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)
56%
Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Soyo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Benfica Luanda away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Soyo attack 1.13 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Benfica Luanda attack 0.86 + Académica do Soyo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Académica do Soyo scores more
38%
level
32%
Benfica Luanda scores more
30%

Académica do Soyo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Académica do Soyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Académica do Soyo 1–0 Benfica Luanda

Académica do Soyo beat Benfica Luanda 1-0 in Girabola on March 31, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Mártires da Kanhara.