Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Benfica Luanda vs Académica do Soyo — Girabola 2012

Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
FT
0 – 0
Académica do Soyo
Académica do Soyo
8/3/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 20Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Benfica Luanda35%
×Draw31%
Académica do Soyo35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Académica do Soyo
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Académica do Soyo
1.00

allows per match

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Académica do Soyo
1.00

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par
Académica do Soyo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Académica do Soyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw
65%
Benfica Luanda or Académica do Soyo
69%
Draw or Académica do Soyo
65%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
13%
Académica do Soyo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
63%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
26%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
8%
Académica do Soyo 1+ goals
63%
Académica do Soyo 2+ goals
26%
Académica do Soyo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
50%
Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Académica do Soyo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.00 + Académica do Soyo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Académica do Soyo attack 1.00 + Benfica Luanda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more
35%
level
31%
Académica do Soyo scores more
35%

Benfica Luanda at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica Luanda vs Académica do Soyo

Benfica Luanda and Académica do Soyo drew 0-0 in Girabola on August 3, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros.