Bravos do Maquis FC 1–3 Benfica Luanda

Bravos do Maquis FC

FT

1 – 3

Benfica Luanda

10/12/2013

Girabola · Round 27Estádio das Mangueiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC32%

×Draw31%

Benfica Luanda37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bravos do Maquis FCExpected goals in this matchBenfica Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.04

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.93

Benfica Luanda

1.04

Benfica Luanda creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.20

0.88

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

1.25

Benfica Luanda

1.20

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC

0.88

Benfica Luanda

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Benfica Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw

63%

Bravos do Maquis FC or Benfica Luanda

69%

Draw or Benfica Luanda

68%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+

11%

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals

61%

Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals

24%

Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals

7%

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals

65%

Benfica Luanda 2+ goals

28%

Benfica Luanda 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)

46%

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Benfica Luanda away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.25 + Benfica Luanda defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Benfica Luanda attack 1.20 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more

32%

level

31%

Benfica Luanda scores more

37%

Benfica Luanda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff