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Benfica Luanda vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2025

Benfica Luanda
Benfica Luanda
FT
1 – 0
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
9/19/2014GirabolaGirabola · Round 24Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Benfica Luanda37%
×Draw29%
Bravos do Maquis FC33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica Luanda
1.13
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 28 away

creates per match

Benfica Luanda
1.00
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.71

allows per match

Benfica Luanda
1.40
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.25

finishing

Benfica Luanda+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica Luanda ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Benfica Luanda or draw
67%
Benfica Luanda or Bravos do Maquis FC
71%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
63%

Winning margin

Benfica Luanda wins by 2+
15%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Benfica Luanda 1+ goals
68%
Benfica Luanda 2+ goals
31%
Benfica Luanda 3+ goals
11%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
65%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
28%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Benfica Luanda (draw refunded)
53%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica Luanda at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica Luanda attack 1.00 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.71 + Benfica Luanda defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Benfica Luanda scores more
37%
level
29%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
33%

Benfica Luanda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benfica Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica Luanda vs Bravos do Maquis FC

Benfica Luanda beat Bravos do Maquis FC 1-0 in Girabola on September 19, 2014.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.