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ASA vs Sagrada Esperança — Girabola 2012

ASA
ASA
FT
1 – 0
Sagrada Esperança
Sagrada Esperança
8/4/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 20Estádio Cidade Universitária

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

ASA28%
×Draw31%
Sagrada Esperança40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASA
0.85
Sagrada Esperança
1.08

Sagrada Esperança creates 27% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 110 away

creates per match

ASA
0.71
Sagrada Esperança
0.91

allows per match

ASA
1.25
Sagrada Esperança
1.00

finishing

ASA+0.00on par
Sagrada Esperança+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASA ↓

Sagrada Esperança →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

ASA or draw
60%
ASA or Sagrada Esperança
69%
Draw or Sagrada Esperança
72%

Winning margin

ASA wins by 2+
9%
Sagrada Esperança wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

ASA 1+ goals
57%
ASA 2+ goals
21%
ASA 3+ goals
5%
Sagrada Esperança 1+ goals
66%
Sagrada Esperança 2+ goals
29%
Sagrada Esperança 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ASA (draw refunded)
41%
Sagrada Esperança (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASA at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Sagrada Esperança away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASA attack 0.71 + Sagrada Esperança defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Sagrada Esperança attack 0.91 + ASA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ASA scores more
28%
level
31%
Sagrada Esperança scores more
40%

Sagrada Esperança at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sagrada Esperança will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: ASA 1–0 Sagrada Esperança

ASA beat Sagrada Esperança 1-0 in Girabola on August 4, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Cidade Universitária.