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Oakleigh Cannons vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
5/5/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 12Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons72%
×Draw16%
North Geelong Warriors12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.60
North Geelong Warriors
0.97

Oakleigh Cannons creates 168% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 13 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
North Geelong Warriors
0.85

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
North Geelong Warriors
2.77

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
88%
Oakleigh Cannons or North Geelong Warriors
84%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
28%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
50%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
92%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
73%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
47%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
62%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
25%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
86%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + North Geelong Warriors defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.60

North Geelong Warriors attack 0.85 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
72%
level
16%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
12%

Oakleigh Cannons at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Oakleigh Cannons 5–0 North Geelong Warriors

Oakleigh Cannons beat North Geelong Warriors 5-0 in Victoria NPL on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.