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North Geelong Warriors vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
8/8/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 25Elcho Park Pitch 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

North Geelong Warriors12%
×Draw18%
Oakleigh Cannons70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Geelong Warriors
0.83
Oakleigh Cannons
2.27

Oakleigh Cannons creates 173% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors
0.54
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors
2.69
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw
30%
North Geelong Warriors or Oakleigh Cannons
82%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
88%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
4%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
56%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
20%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
5%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
90%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
66%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
15%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 0.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 0.54 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.83

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + North Geelong Warriors defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more
12%
level
18%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
70%

Oakleigh Cannons at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: North Geelong Warriors 2–4 Oakleigh Cannons

Oakleigh Cannons beat North Geelong Warriors 4-2 in Victoria NPL on August 8, 2023.

The match was played at Elcho Park Pitch 2 in Lara.