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Oakleigh Cannons vs Moreland City — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moreland City
Moreland City
8/19/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons72%
×Draw15%
Moreland City13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.91
Moreland City
1.20

Oakleigh Cannons creates 143% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 26 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Moreland City
1.31

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Moreland City
3.38

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Moreland City+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Moreland City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
87%
Oakleigh Cannons or Moreland City
85%
Draw or Moreland City
28%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
51%
Moreland City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
94%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
78%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
54%
Moreland City 1+ goals
70%
Moreland City 2+ goals
34%
Moreland City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
84%
Moreland City (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Moreland City away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.38 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Moreland City defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.91

Moreland City attack 1.31 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
72%
level
15%
Moreland City scores more
13%

Oakleigh Cannons at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Oakleigh Cannons 5–0 Moreland City

Oakleigh Cannons beat Moreland City 5-0 in Victoria NPL on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.