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Moreland City vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Moreland City
Moreland City
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
5/13/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 13CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Moreland City20%
×Draw22%
Oakleigh Cannons58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland City
1.06
Oakleigh Cannons
1.97

Oakleigh Cannons creates 86% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 87 away

creates per match

Moreland City
1.00
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Moreland City
2.08
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Moreland City+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland City ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Moreland City or draw
42%
Moreland City or Oakleigh Cannons
78%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
80%

Winning margin

Moreland City wins by 2+
7%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Moreland City 1+ goals
65%
Moreland City 2+ goals
29%
Moreland City 3+ goals
9%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
86%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
58%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Moreland City (draw refunded)
26%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland City attack 1.00 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Moreland City defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Moreland City scores more
20%
level
22%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
58%

Oakleigh Cannons at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Moreland City 0–3 Oakleigh Cannons

Oakleigh Cannons beat Moreland City 3-0 in Victoria NPL on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.