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Oakleigh Cannons vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
J. Guest 53'
A. Salmon 24'
J. Hoey 62'
C. Gorevski 37'
L. Bourke 22'
D. Lazarevski 8'
A. Houridis 3'
6/13/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 18Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons61%
×Draw19%
Melbourne Victory II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.33
Melbourne Victory II
1.27

Oakleigh Cannons creates 83% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 13 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Melbourne Victory II
1.46

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Melbourne Victory II
2.23

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
80%
Oakleigh Cannons or Melbourne Victory II
81%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
39%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
39%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
90%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
67%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
41%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
72%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
36%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
75%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.33

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.46 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
61%
level
19%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
20%

Oakleigh Cannons at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Houridis
8'
D. Lazarevski
22'
L. Bourke
24'
A. Salmon
37'
C. Gorevski
53'
J. Guest
62'
J. Hoey

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oakleigh Cannons vs Melbourne Victory II

Melbourne Victory II beat Oakleigh Cannons 5-2 in Victoria NPL on June 13, 2025.

Goals: A. Houridis (3'), D. Lazarevski (8'), L. Bourke (22'), A. Salmon (24'), C. Gorevski (37'), J. Guest (53'), J. Hoey (62').

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.