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Melbourne Victory II vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
J. Knowles 90+1'
J. Guest 49' (pen), 31'
3/9/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 5Kingston Heath Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melbourne Victory II21%
×Draw21%
Oakleigh Cannons58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Victory II
1.21
Oakleigh Cannons
2.12

Oakleigh Cannons creates 75% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Melbourne Victory II
1.31
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Melbourne Victory II
2.38
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Victory II ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Melbourne Victory II or draw
42%
Melbourne Victory II or Oakleigh Cannons
79%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
79%

Winning margin

Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
8%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
70%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
34%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
12%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
88%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
62%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
27%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Victory II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Victory II attack 1.31 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Melbourne Victory II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Melbourne Victory II scores more
21%
level
21%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
58%

Oakleigh Cannons at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
J. Guest
49'
J. GuestPenalty
90+1'
J. Knowles

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Melbourne Victory II 0–3 Oakleigh Cannons

Oakleigh Cannons beat Melbourne Victory II 3-0 in Victoria NPL on March 9, 2025.

Goals: J. Guest (31', 49' pen), J. Knowles (90+1').

The match was played at Kingston Heath Soccer Complex in Melbourne.