Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oakleigh Cannons vs Melbourne Knights — Victoria NPL 2026

Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
2/28/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 4Jack Edwards Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Oakleigh Cannons60%
×Draw20%
Melbourne Knights20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakleigh Cannons
2.20
Melbourne Knights
1.19

Oakleigh Cannons creates 85% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 78 away

creates per match

Oakleigh Cannons
2.44
Melbourne Knights
1.29

allows per match

Oakleigh Cannons
1.08
Melbourne Knights
1.96

finishing

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par
Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakleigh Cannons ↓

Melbourne Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Oakleigh Cannons or draw
80%
Oakleigh Cannons or Melbourne Knights
80%
Draw or Melbourne Knights
40%

Winning margin

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
37%
Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
89%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
64%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
37%
Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
70%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
33%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
75%
Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakleigh Cannons at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.08 · 93 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakleigh Cannons attack 2.44 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.20

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Oakleigh Cannons scores more
60%
level
20%
Melbourne Knights scores more
20%

Oakleigh Cannons at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Oakleigh Cannons 3–0 Melbourne Knights

Oakleigh Cannons beat Melbourne Knights 3-0 in Victoria NPL on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Jack Edwards Reserve in Melbourne.