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Melbourne Knights vs Oakleigh Cannons — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oakleigh Cannons
Oakleigh Cannons
4/26/2024Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 11Knights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Melbourne Knights31%
×Draw24%
Oakleigh Cannons45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.37
Oakleigh Cannons
1.68

Oakleigh Cannons creates 23% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 87 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
1.62
Oakleigh Cannons
1.85

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
1.51
Oakleigh Cannons
1.11

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
55%
Melbourne Knights or Oakleigh Cannons
76%
Draw or Oakleigh Cannons
69%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
14%
Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
75%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
40%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
16%
Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals
81%
Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals
50%
Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
41%
Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
31%
level
24%
Oakleigh Cannons scores more
45%

Oakleigh Cannons at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oakleigh Cannons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne Knights vs Oakleigh Cannons

Oakleigh Cannons beat Melbourne Knights 1-0 in Victoria NPL on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Knights Stadium in Melbourne.