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Oakland Roots vs FC Tulsa — USL Championship 2018

Oakland Roots
Oakland Roots
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
9/21/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 31Laney College Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Oakland Roots44%
×Draw26%
FC Tulsa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakland Roots
1.47
FC Tulsa
1.19

Oakland Roots creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 130 away

creates per match

Oakland Roots
1.13
FC Tulsa
1.19

allows per match

Oakland Roots
1.20
FC Tulsa
1.81

finishing

Oakland Roots+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland Roots ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Oakland Roots or draw
69%
Oakland Roots or FC Tulsa
74%
Draw or FC Tulsa
56%

Winning margin

Oakland Roots wins by 2+
21%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Oakland Roots 1+ goals
77%
Oakland Roots 2+ goals
43%
Oakland Roots 3+ goals
18%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
70%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
33%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Oakland Roots (draw refunded)
59%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland Roots at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland Roots attack 1.13 + FC Tulsa defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

FC Tulsa attack 1.19 + Oakland Roots defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Oakland Roots scores more
44%
level
26%
FC Tulsa scores more
31%

Oakland Roots at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Oakland Roots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Oakland Roots 1–1 FC Tulsa

Oakland Roots and FC Tulsa drew 1-1 in USL Championship on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Laney College Football Stadium.