FC Tulsa 0–1 Oakland Roots: Result & Stats

FC Tulsa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oakland Roots

5/25/2024

USL Championship · Round 13ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

FC Tulsa42%

×Draw24%

Oakland Roots34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC TulsaExpected goals in this matchOakland Roots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.44

FC Tulsa

1.61

Oakland Roots

1.44

FC Tulsa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 93 away

1.45

creates per match

1.47

1.42

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FC Tulsa

1.45

Oakland Roots

1.47

allows per match

FC Tulsa

1.42

Oakland Roots

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Oakland Roots+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Oakland Roots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw

66%

FC Tulsa or Oakland Roots

76%

Draw or Oakland Roots

58%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+

21%

Oakland Roots wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals

80%

FC Tulsa 2+ goals

48%

FC Tulsa 3+ goals

22%

Oakland Roots 1+ goals

76%

Oakland Roots 2+ goals

42%

Oakland Roots 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)

55%

Oakland Roots (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Oakland Roots away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.77 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 1.45 + Oakland Roots defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Oakland Roots attack 1.47 + FC Tulsa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Tulsa scores more

42%

level

24%

Oakland Roots scores more

34%

FC Tulsa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff