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Oakland Roots vs Charleston Battery — USL Championship 2026

Oakland Roots
Oakland Roots
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
3/17/2024USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3Pioneer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Oakland Roots40%
×Draw26%
Charleston Battery34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oakland Roots
1.36
Charleston Battery
1.23

Oakland Roots creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 134 away

creates per match

Oakland Roots
1.13
Charleston Battery
1.26

allows per match

Oakland Roots
1.20
Charleston Battery
1.60

finishing

Oakland Roots+0.00on par
Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oakland Roots ↓

Charleston Battery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Oakland Roots or draw
66%
Oakland Roots or Charleston Battery
74%
Draw or Charleston Battery
60%

Winning margin

Oakland Roots wins by 2+
18%
Charleston Battery wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Oakland Roots 1+ goals
74%
Oakland Roots 2+ goals
39%
Oakland Roots 3+ goals
16%
Charleston Battery 1+ goals
71%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
35%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oakland Roots (draw refunded)
54%
Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oakland Roots at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 90 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oakland Roots attack 1.13 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + Oakland Roots defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Oakland Roots scores more
40%
level
26%
Charleston Battery scores more
34%

Oakland Roots at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Oakland Roots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Oakland Roots vs Charleston Battery

Oakland Roots and Charleston Battery drew 1-1 in USL Championship on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Pioneer Stadium in Hayward, California.