Charleston Battery 3–3 Oakland Roots

Charleston Battery

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Oakland Roots

9/13/2025

USL Championship · Round 29Patriots Point Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Charleston Battery50%

×Draw23%

Oakland Roots28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charleston BatteryExpected goals in this matchOakland Roots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.31

Charleston Battery

1.83

Oakland Roots

1.31

Charleston Battery creates 40% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 93 away

1.89

creates per match

1.47

1.15

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Charleston Battery

1.89

Oakland Roots

1.47

allows per match

Charleston Battery

1.15

Oakland Roots

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Oakland Roots+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleston Battery ↓

Oakland Roots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Charleston Battery or draw

72%

Charleston Battery or Oakland Roots

77%

Draw or Oakland Roots

50%

Winning margin

Charleston Battery wins by 2+

27%

Oakland Roots wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Charleston Battery 1+ goals

84%

Charleston Battery 2+ goals

54%

Charleston Battery 3+ goals

28%

Oakland Roots 1+ goals

73%

Oakland Roots 2+ goals

38%

Oakland Roots 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Charleston Battery (draw refunded)

64%

Oakland Roots (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleston Battery at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 137 matches

Oakland Roots away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.77 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleston Battery attack 1.89 + Oakland Roots defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

Oakland Roots attack 1.47 + Charleston Battery defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Charleston Battery scores more

50%

level

23%

Oakland Roots scores more

28%

Charleston Battery at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Charleston Battery will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff