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O'Higgins vs Nublense — Copa De La Liga 2026

O'Higgins
O'Higginsadvanced
Pens
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nublense
Nublense
B. Rabello 120+5' (pen)
M. Brizuela 120+3' (pen)
A. Castillo 120+2' (pen)
F. Gonzalez 120+1' (pen), 68' (pen)
J. Campusano 120+4' (pen)
G. Graciani 120+3' (pen)
7/13/2026Copa De La LigaCopa De La Liga · Semi-finalsEstadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

O'Higgins36%
×Draw28%
Nublense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

O'Higgins
1.17
Nublense
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

O'Higgins
1.67
Nublense
1.33

allows per match

O'Higgins
1.00
Nublense
0.67

finishing

O'Higgins+0.00on par
Nublense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

O'Higgins ↓

Nublense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

O'Higgins or draw
64%
O'Higgins or Nublense
72%
Draw or Nublense
64%

Winning margin

O'Higgins wins by 2+
15%
Nublense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

O'Higgins 1+ goals
69%
O'Higgins 2+ goals
33%
O'Higgins 3+ goals
11%
Nublense 1+ goals
69%
Nublense 2+ goals
33%
Nublense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

O'Higgins (draw refunded)
50%
Nublense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

O'Higgins at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

O'Higgins attack 1.67 + Nublense defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nublense attack 1.33 + O'Higgins defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

O'Higgins scores more
36%
level
28%
Nublense scores more
36%

O'Higgins at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "O'Higgins will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
J. Campusano
46'
D. Sanhueza← F. Campos Mosqueira
46'
A. Castillo← B. Yanez
62'
A. Valdes← I. Jeraldino
67'
S. Valencia
68'
F. GonzalezPenalty
69'
F. Gonzalez
69'
D. Cespedes← L. Molina Canto
71'
E. Moreira← T. Vecino
72'
D. Cespedes
77'
G. Graciani← M. Rivera
77'
C. Salomon← M. Plaza
83'
B. Rabello← Martin Sarrafiore
89'
L. Diaz← L. Pavez
120+1'
F. GonzalezPenalty
120+1'
L. ReyesMissed penalty
120+2'
A. CastilloPenalty
120+2'
A. ValdesMissed penalty
120+3'
M. BrizuelaPenalty
120+3'
G. GracianiPenalty
120+4'
E. MoreiraMissed penalty
120+4'
J. CampusanoPenalty
120+5'
B. RabelloPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa De La Liga: O'Higgins 1–0 Nublense

O'Higgins beat Nublense 1-0 in Copa De La Liga on July 13, 2026.

Goals: F. Gonzalez (68' pen, 120+1' pen), A. Castillo (120+2' pen), M. Brizuela (120+3' pen), G. Graciani (120+3' pen), J. Campusano (120+4' pen), B. Rabello (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Estadio El Teniente in Rancagua.