Nublense 0–2 O'Higgins: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

O'Higgins

F. Gonzalez 34'

T. Vecino 13'

4/25/2026

Primera División · Round 11Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nublense43%

×Draw26%

O'Higgins31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchO'Higgins

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

Nublense

1.42

O'Higgins

1.15

Nublense creates 23% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 114 away

1.46

creates per match

1.21

1.08

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Nublense

1.46

O'Higgins

1.21

allows per match

Nublense

1.08

O'Higgins

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nublense+0.00on par

O'Higgins+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

O'Higgins →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

69%

Nublense or O'Higgins

74%

Draw or O'Higgins

57%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

21%

O'Higgins wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

76%

Nublense 2+ goals

41%

Nublense 3+ goals

17%

O'Higgins 1+ goals

68%

O'Higgins 2+ goals

32%

O'Higgins 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

59%

O'Higgins (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 84 matches

O'Higgins away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.46 + O'Higgins defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

O'Higgins attack 1.21 + Nublense defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nublense scores more

43%

level

26%

O'Higgins scores more

31%

Nublense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Plaza

Nublense · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

T. Vecino↳ F. Faundez

34'

F. Gonzalez↳ B. Rabello

46'

D. Cespedes← L. Molina Canto

46'

I. Tapia← D. Sanhueza

48'

Felipe Faúndez

50'

Martín Maturana

52'

Lorenzo Reyes

65'

F. Ovelar← F. Campos Mosqueira

67'

F. Rami← I. Jeraldino

71'

A. Castillo← T. Vecino

71'

B. Rojas← M. Maturana

71'

G. Pinto← B. Rabello

76'

J. Gonzalez← G. Graciani

82'

B. Schamine← J. Leiva

83'

Matías Plaza

87'

C. Morales← L. Diaz

90+4'

Sebastián Valencia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NublenseO'Higgins

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots7

4Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots7

2On Target5

9Off Target1

4Blocked1

14Inside Box5

1Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

396Total Passes482

306Accurate Passes394

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1