Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nzoia Sugar vs Vihiga United FC — Super League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
11/9/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nzoia Sugar54%
×Draw26%
Vihiga United FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.54
Vihiga United FC
0.82

Nzoia Sugar creates 88% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.30
Vihiga United FC
0.80

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.84
Vihiga United FC
1.78

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
80%
Nzoia Sugar or Vihiga United FC
74%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
46%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
28%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
79%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
45%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
20%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
56%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
20%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
73%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.30 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Nzoia Sugar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
54%
level
26%
Vihiga United FC scores more
20%

Nzoia Sugar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nzoia Sugar vs Vihiga United FC

Nzoia Sugar and Vihiga United FC drew 0-0 in Super League on November 9, 2025.