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Nzoia Sugar vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
1 – 2
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
B. Muchuma 66'
D. Wafula 68'
L. Luvanda 45' (pen)
6/15/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 19Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nzoia Sugar38%
×Draw31%
Vihiga United FC32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.07
Vihiga United FC
0.95

Nzoia Sugar creates 13% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.96
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.12
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
68%
Nzoia Sugar or Vihiga United FC
69%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
62%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
15%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
9%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
61%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
25%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
55%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 112 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
38%
level
31%
Vihiga United FC scores more
32%

Nzoia Sugar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
L. LuvandaPenalty
66'
B. Muchuma
68'
D. Wafula
90+7'
G. WanderaMissed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nzoia Sugar vs Vihiga United FC

Vihiga United FC beat Nzoia Sugar 2-1 in FKF Premier League on June 15, 2021.

Goals: L. Luvanda (45' pen), B. Muchuma (66'), D. Wafula (68').

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.