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Nzoia Sugar vs GOR Mahia — FKF Premier League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
3/8/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 16Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Nzoia Sugar25%
×Draw28%
GOR Mahia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
0.88
GOR Mahia
1.31

GOR Mahia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 144 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.96
GOR Mahia
1.49

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.12
GOR Mahia
0.80

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
GOR Mahia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

GOR Mahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
53%
Nzoia Sugar or GOR Mahia
72%
Draw or GOR Mahia
75%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
8%
GOR Mahia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
59%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
22%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
6%
GOR Mahia 1+ goals
73%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
38%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
35%
GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

GOR Mahia away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + GOR Mahia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

GOR Mahia attack 1.49 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
25%
level
28%
GOR Mahia scores more
47%

GOR Mahia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nzoia Sugar vs GOR Mahia

Nzoia Sugar and GOR Mahia drew 2-2 in FKF Premier League on March 8, 2023.

The match was played at Sudi Stadium in Bungoma.