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GOR Mahia vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

GOR Mahia
GOR Mahia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
11/19/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 1Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

GOR Mahia51%
×Draw27%
Nzoia Sugar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

GOR Mahia
1.45
Nzoia Sugar
0.86

GOR Mahia creates 69% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 111 away

creates per match

GOR Mahia
1.58
Nzoia Sugar
1.02

allows per match

GOR Mahia
0.70
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

GOR Mahia+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GOR Mahia ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

GOR Mahia or draw
78%
GOR Mahia or Nzoia Sugar
73%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
49%

Winning margin

GOR Mahia wins by 2+
25%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

GOR Mahia 1+ goals
77%
GOR Mahia 2+ goals
42%
GOR Mahia 3+ goals
18%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
58%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
21%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

GOR Mahia (draw refunded)
70%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GOR Mahia at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.70 · 147 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GOR Mahia attack 1.58 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + GOR Mahia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

GOR Mahia scores more
51%
level
27%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
22%

GOR Mahia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "GOR Mahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: GOR Mahia vs Nzoia Sugar

GOR Mahia beat Nzoia Sugar 1-0 in FKF Premier League on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.