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Nzoia Sugar vs Dimba Patriots — Super League 2018

Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
CANC
12:00
Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
3/1/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Nzoia Sugar48%
×Draw29%
Dimba Patriots23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nzoia Sugar
1.25
Dimba Patriots
0.76

Nzoia Sugar creates 64% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar
1.30
Dimba Patriots
0.67

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar
0.84
Dimba Patriots
1.19

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par
Dimba Patriots+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Dimba Patriots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw
77%
Nzoia Sugar or Dimba Patriots
71%
Draw or Dimba Patriots
52%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
22%
Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
71%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
36%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
13%
Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
53%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
18%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
68%
Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

Dimba Patriots away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.30 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dimba Patriots attack 0.67 + Nzoia Sugar defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more
48%
level
29%
Dimba Patriots scores more
23%

Nzoia Sugar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nzoia Sugar face Dimba Patriots (Super League)

Super League returns with Nzoia Sugar hosting Dimba Patriots. Match starts March 1, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.