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Dimba Patriots vs Nzoia Sugar — Super League 2018

Dimba Patriots
Dimba Patriots
CANC
11:00
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
11/3/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7The Wolves Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Dimba Patriots50%
×Draw25%
Nzoia Sugar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dimba Patriots
1.60
Nzoia Sugar
1.05

Dimba Patriots creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dimba Patriots
1.69
Nzoia Sugar
0.92

allows per match

Dimba Patriots
1.19
Nzoia Sugar
1.51

finishing

Dimba Patriots+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dimba Patriots ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Dimba Patriots or draw
75%
Dimba Patriots or Nzoia Sugar
75%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
50%

Winning margin

Dimba Patriots wins by 2+
26%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dimba Patriots 1+ goals
80%
Dimba Patriots 2+ goals
47%
Dimba Patriots 3+ goals
22%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dimba Patriots (draw refunded)
67%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dimba Patriots at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dimba Patriots attack 1.69 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.92 + Dimba Patriots defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dimba Patriots scores more
50%
level
25%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
25%

Dimba Patriots at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dimba Patriots will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dimba Patriots host Nzoia Sugar

November 3, 2024: Dimba Patriots take on Nzoia Sugar in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dimba Patriots host Nzoia Sugar at The Wolves Den.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.